Time to sell a home?

[pfredricks]

I read Darryl remarking to Matt that now is a good time to buy a house in the valley. I couldnt decide for myself, so i thought that I would ask you guys.
On one hand, many people have warned that as interest rates increase, values will fall. History has shown that during low interest times, home values tend to grossly overinflate (HMMM)
The valley experienced a housing deflation problem in the early 90's and recovered after 5 or 7 years.
I am afraid that If i upgrade, my value could plummet and leave me in an upside down situation.
Also consider that 2/3 of jobs in the valley is derived from home building/sales. That number is significant if there is a big drop in value/work/new homebuilding.
Everyone would be packing up and moving.
However, Phoenix is just above average home prices currently. It has a long way to expand to meet California, Washington, etc and is certainly a hot spot.
What is your best guess?
I am thinking about selling and taking a profit as interest rates increase.

or should I upgrade looking for more profit?

food for thought!
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0206investor06.html
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"I am just going outside and may be some time."- Explorer Oates' last words before crawling out of his tent in -40 C temps. Sacrificed himself so as not to hold back his 1912 South Pole expedition teamates.

[Davis2001R6]

Pete absolutely do not sell your home! If you upgrade that's one thing but don't get rid of it all together because you could find that once you sell your home you hope to get into another one, but values will keep going up until you can't afford the one you had to begin with. Thats what happened to one of my friends in Vegas.

[Daryl]

Home prices rarely drop. When they do, it's usually only because the house or the neighborhood also dropped. More commonly, it just takes longer to sell and the prices don't rise as fast.
San Diego, Vegas, and much of the east coast has been through this rush already. When it stops, home prices are so high that first time buyers can't buy. Don't sell unless you are buying another house! Average house in San Diego is now $550,000!!!
What is happening here is the investors from out of state are buying houses and renting them out. They will fly in for the weekend and put offers on 4-5 houses. The new home builders refused to sell to investors now. They had people coming in buying 10-20 houses at a time only to put for rent signs on them or turn around and sell them in a year.

If you are looking to upgrade, look in the areas where they are building new homes and the freeways/shopping stores/gas stations... are not there yet. We've done this twice now and have made a killing both times.
Also, if you are buying, be prepared to pay over the asking price on the house. My wife just listed a house and had 5 contracts on the house the first day! Buyers out number the sellers, so the asking price on the house is simply a starting point for the bidding war that will follow. Also, be sure your agent is checking the system every day for you, capable of taking you to show it with little notice and is very aggressive. Houses usually only stay on the market for a few days unless they are in bad shape or overpriced right now, you need to act quick.
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[Davis2001R6]

I couldn't agree more Daryl!

[cactuscat]

Act quick is right! Misty and I had trouble getting what we needed out of our house when we tried to sell it last year. Put it up for sale again a couple of months ago, and got multiple bids the first two days. Then had a bit of a bidding war, and sold it within a week for 80k more than we were asking last year! It's a good thing, though because now we want to move to Scottsdale and we will definitely need every penny for the kind of house we want there. It's a lot of fun when you're selling; a little scary when you're buying.

[Trishness]

Forget buying a house anywhere in the Valley....I moved to AJ for a reason 5 years ago and now Metro-Phoenix is edging on my threshold. Looks like I'll have to buy some land up in Superior.


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~~~Trish~~~

"Eastward the dawn rose, ridge behind ridge into the morning, and vanished out of eyesight into guess; it was no more than a glimmer blending with the hem of the sky, but it spoke to them, out of the memory and old tales, of the high and distant mountains." � J.R.R. Tolkien, The Lord of The Rings.

[Davis2001R6]

Trish buying property in Superior wouldn't be such a bad idea, things are going to boom a bit there once that big mining contract they got kicks in.

[cactuscat]

[Davis2001R6]

Cactuscat,

Your probably right! This was the article I was refering too.
http://www.arizonahikers.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2349

[Tom Treks]

Hmmm... says Mine won't be open until 2014. Crap, I'll be doing "the shuffle" to the petroglyphs on Hieroglyphic Trail by then.

All kidding aside, there are definitely more than a few hiking/climbing resources to lose if that deal goes through.

[cactuscat]

[Shawn]

Here's a different perspective.

The Rio Tinto Mine is said to be the biggest copper deposit discovery in the world. The world! Have you driven thru Morenci AZ? This is bigger. The numbers on every aspect of this operation are off the charts.

I see the AZTrail folks got $100K from the owners. Rather than jousting with the windmill here trying to stop it, how about guiding and benefiting from it?

Before anyone yells at me, I am as green as the next person here, probably greener than most. But realistically, "stopping" something like this, under this administration, is not likely.

I don't like the looks of a copper mine, but I like it when the lights come on when I flip the switch. We run on oil but our machines are made from minerals. There's no going back. We are all talking on computers--electricity, technology, copper, etc.

$.02

.
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The bear went over the mountain to see what he could see.

[Davis2001R6]

Shawn I have to agree with you a bit on some points there. If it's really as big as everyone's claiming it is, then your right, there probably is no stopping it. But if we can control some part of it maybe a comprimise can be made.

That's just my opinion, but I know some people aren't going to want to hear it.

TIM

[cactuscat]

They're working on a compromise of sorts, where Resolution Copper would buy and then donate a parcial of land for public use to "replace" the areas they're taking away. Some people think this is a fair solution, others think it's a total sellout ...

[evenstar]