Scarey times/ hopes for all of us

[GeorgAz]

Is anyone else here getiing terrified about your IRA's etc. going down the tubes??Mine are down 20k..That's a lot of camping gear! And a new truck ( and a ski trip). I am terrifiied of this election and wish we had some coherent elite intelligence running this country.
Anyone want to pool resources and maybe buy an unknown island somewhere( with mountains)??

[RedRoxx44]

Yes, looks bad and I am no expert by any means; but looks like a needed correction. Some folks ( shorting the market) are making money.
Historically the market has averaged around 11 percent for about 50 years or so. Someone smarter than me has exact stats I am sure. So, we'll take it in the shorts for a while, then hopefully it'll all straighten out, but sure won't be soon I think.

I vote a write in campaign for Paris Hilton. After all she made one good ad, and probably has about as much ability to run the government as all of congress.
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You can rest when you're dead

[Shawn]

I advise to keep it in perspective. Yes, it's bad, but consider American history, we have been on the edge before--Civil War, the robber barons, Great Depression, race riots, Viet Nam.

If we could draft leadership, who would you?
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The bear went over the mountain to see what he could see.

[MikeInFHAZ]

[Deborah]

Yes, the economy is a bit scary these days, I just got my quarterly 401-K report yesterday and Yikes it had taken a plunge. The good news is I have about 20 more years to go until I can even touch my retirement so hopefully things will pick up again.
I keep telling myself I have a backpack, a truck, and a tent so I guess I will just go off into the wilds to forage for food . LOL.
We are survivors if we can hike more than a couple of miles and can campout in any weather condition. So don't worry , be happy.
Keep on HIking!
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Those who dwell among the beauties and mysteries of the earth are never alone or weary of life. - Rachel Carson

[Shawn]

They are just having a sale, time to buy . . . . .
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The bear went over the mountain to see what he could see.

[oliverr99]

Yeah I lost money too
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Anne
"Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened" -- Dr. Seuss

[azhiker96]

Yes, the value has gone down on mine but I won't sell to lock in the loss. I've seen drops before, expect to see them again. What I don't like is the $700B bailout of the greedy. Banks made loans they never should have offered just to make more money. People took loans they couldn't afford because they wanted more house than they could afford or they expected to sell later at a profit. Now all those people are getting bailed out with our tax money. I really feel that our congressmen and their favorite lobbyests probably have large investments AIG and others who could go under. They don't want to lose their money, hence the bailout.

I bought a house, with a fixed rate loan, and am still making payments. I get nothing because I didn't overextend myself. A better use for the bailout money would be to distribute it to every taxpayer equally. They'd either use it to pay on their loans or to buy goods from solvent businesses who make good business decisions. But, I'm not an economist or lobbyist, or ranking party official so my opinion is worth the paper it's written on. (Please don't print this or you'll double the value of my opinion.)

Okay, rant over. However, I wish the election were over so they'd quit running these political ads and get back to KFC and Sonic commercials; something worth watching.
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It is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. -- Carl Sagan

[Al_HikesAZ]

Many of you won't want to hear this. But step back and take a look at the dynamics.

As some of you know, I'm a CPA for a private equity firm. I did my graduate work at ASU. My undergraduate major at Stanford was Economics and my faculty advisor was Michael Boskin.

We saw this coming a few months ago which is why I've been working so hard and not hiking.

Fundamentally, Stock values are based on discounted cash flows relating to a company's expected future earnings. Government actions that reduce profits have almost always led to reduced, if not disappearing, earnings. If earnings expectations dive, so do stock prices. I don't care who wins the Presidential election, I'll adjust and adapt. But I do know that the candidate proposing Protectionism and increased taxes appears headed to victory. The market is reflecting this expectation. And the media is presenting its conventional wisdom oblivious of the dynamic at work here.

I think there is some overreaction and fear. Some of it is spurred by margin calls. We should see some technical support in the near term around 8200 but with tremendous volatility. I am concerned about the inverted Libor-OIS / Prime spread. Watch the news for any statements by ASU Professor Prescott - he is a Nobel Prize Winner in Economics.
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Anyone can make a hike harder. The skill comes in making it easier. Dosatéhigo nasádo

[maryphyl]

Methinks we should teach classes in the economic history of the world. Like a pendulum we swing back and forth from too far left to too far right. The lefties overtax and over regulate and build up the welfare system till everything comes to a screeching halt. The righties are too stingy with the poor folks, too easy on the gamblers playing in the markets and refuse to live within their means--they don't tax and spend--they just spend. Middle ground is what we need and it seems impossible to come by.
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Shikekeh hozhoogo naasha.
I walk in beauty.

[lzyboy]

Hey, I think it's great! The price of my Ford van I've been trying to sell just went up from nothing to something. Fact is, it'll make a great studio apartment, down by the river! Might even be living in it myself... Just for awhile... Or call me. I can creatively finance your next living quarters!!
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I see my path, but I don't know where it leads. Not knowing where I'm going is what inspires me to travel it.

Rosalia de Castro

[Suz]

[thesuperstitions]

Nope... sorry... can't help out those "Responsible" citizens. We MUST help out those poor, unfortunate individuals and corporations that leveraged themselves beyond comprehension, building a house of cards based upon poor decision-making (individuals that took out outrageous loans), hubris (the Federal Reserve) and "derivatives" (mega-lending institutions).

So, I wonder how our Federal Reserve and Treasury decide which companies to save and which to let go under... Hmmm... I guess if the head of the Treasury is a former head of Goldman-Sachs, and Goldman-Sachs holds over $20,000,000,000.00 worth of AIG assets, then you save AIG!

Here's the cux of the problem as I see it... the Federal Reserve (and all of the professional politicians in Washington) is so afraid of letting the economy go into recession that they guarantee that we will have a crash like we're experiencing now. Recession is a healthy part of the business cyle. It forces companies to either become lean or go out of business. At every hiccup in growth, the Fed pumps out more money, encouraging lenders to "put it out there" and bloating our economy through debt. That can only be done until you reach "the tipping point" where the economy can grow no further due to debt-saturation, and comes crumbling down.

Isn't it funny that every 20 years or so, we have a "crisis" caused by the Fed (although they blame it on everyone else!). The result is that the Federal Government "saves" us by getting larger, more controlling and less-responsive to the citizenry. Let's see... we can create a crisis and then ride in on our white horse and claim that only "WE" can solve the crisis, using your tax money of course!!

So how do you prevent this from happening in the future. The "right" thing to do, in my opinion, would be to disband the Federal Reserve Board or put a straight-jacket on them so that they can no longer manipulate the economy through money supply. Why it will never happen is because manipulating the economy gives tremendous power to those that control the levers! Absolute power corrupts absolutely!

[azhiker96]

Ken, thanks for the post. As I read it I thought of a backcountry analogy. We "manage" the forests by putting out every fire (recession) we see and thus allow more debris (poor businesses) to build up. Eventually enough fire load builds up so that the next fire takes off and destroys millions of acres despite efforts to contain it. I reckin that would be the equivalent of a depression. It's kind of funny how the more we try to manipulate things the more we mess them up.
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It is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. -- Carl Sagan

[Sande J]

Enjoy reading all your comments...me thinks the regular citizens actually have some good input and ideas. On a positive note, some of us that were financially smart enough to realize that too much was too much for a home may finally be able to benefit.....that would be me...a regular blue collar earner. I have never really figured out a way to make alot of money, just been smart about not spending it! I just purchased my first home in the valley at a bargain price (the way I have always shopped). It is actually something I can afford and it is a pretty nice place. My payments are the same as what I was paying to rent. Been waiting along time for this ( 8 years) and it is all looking good. It was a foreclosure and I went through the auction process. My appraisal came back for more than 15,000 than I am buying it for, so I am already ahead. In my own way I guess you could say I am bailing out the bank too. If all goes as planned I should be closed by 11/06. So, good things are possible for alot of folks out there who can now finally afford housing.
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And this our life, exempt from public haunt,
Finds tongues in trees, books in the running brooks, Sermons in stone, good in everything..
-William Shakespeare-