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Is it still time to buy a home???
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Is it time to buy or sell a home???
As interest rates increase, home values/prices will decline or level off.
63%
 63%  [ 19 ]
Strong demand for housing will continue to push prices up at a record rate
23%
 23%  [ 7 ]
Sell now!!!!!!!!!Take your profits. The valley has overbuilt.
13%
 13%  [ 4 ]
Total Votes : 30

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CatValet
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Joined: 04 Jan 2003
Posts: 735
Location: Scottsdale

PostPosted: 6/6/2007, 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

Building permits in the edge suburbs are creeping back up from the low of last year. The City I work for went from a boom high of 800 permits per month (that's 9600 homes per year, or 19,200 cars or 28,800 people) to a low of 50 per month; now back up to about 250.

In Central Arizona (Maricopa and Pinal) there are right now (drum roll, please) over 1.3 million new homes "Entitled" and not yet built. "Entitled" means that the master planned developments have been zoned and approved by the Counties or local jurisdictions, so the builders are "entitled" to build a specified number of units. Of these, 350,000 are in Buckeye, about 80,000 are in Surprise and 500,000 are in Pinal County trying to figure out how to commute to work through Gilbert.

This all means............Tollroads Shocked
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JW
I'll make rain with my spaceman powers!




Joined: 20 Sep 2003
Posts: 1296

PostPosted: 6/6/2007, 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

Hey SJ, I think you need to wait awhile longer, and look for "cherry-picking" opportune deals.

A year out (summertime :) 2008 ), I want to start getting back into the housing market. All of the previous posts (since 2005?), have been pretty accurate. However, you have to keep in mind Randy's comments about transportation/commuting issues, Ken's comparative market comments, and all the rest.

The "one-shot" retirement demographic change that we are heading into (if you look at the predicted population demographic shifts), is still ramping-up. Keep that in mind and plan accordingly :)
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thesuperstitions
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PostPosted: 6/6/2007, 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

If I had to predict what the housing market would probably do over the next year, I would guess that it will stay about the same trend-wise... maybe a little weaker due to energy-related inflationary pressures within the economy. The Fed, at best will hold interest rates steady and maybe even increase them to try to curb inflation. If increases come to pass, the housing market will slow further and prices will drop precipitously. Good news for those that have waited for an opportunity. Bad news for those that bought at the top.

Further out, I think we will see tremendous turmoil in the housing (and equity) markets due to further attempts by politicians to hide the structural problems within our onerous social programs.

Just my $0.02...
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Cynhikr





Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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PostPosted: 6/11/2007, 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article2.aspx?cp-documentid=4734608
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beckett





Joined: 14 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: 6/11/2007, 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

Very interesting to see Michigan and Arizona side by side in this chart. I need to figure out what this means to me as a seller in Michigan and a buyer in Arizona.
Linda
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Davis2001R6





Joined: 12 Dec 2003
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PostPosted: 6/11/2007, 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

It is definitely a buyers and renters market in AZ. I have a lot of friends renting houses for probably 1/2 of what my mortgage is.
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Cynhikr





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PostPosted: 6/11/2007, 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

Davis2001R6 wrote:
It is definitely a buyers and renters market in AZ. I have a lot of friends renting houses for probably 1/2 of what my mortgage is.


Foreclosures up for AZ investors
Catherine Reagor and Ryan Konig
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 9, 2007 12:00 AM

Investors sparked the run-up in home sales and prices during the Valley's housing boom. Now, they are behind much of the area's rapid increase in foreclosures.
At least one-quarter of all Phoenix-area homes to fall into foreclosure this year are owned by investors, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of residential foreclosure records. The number is rising monthly as investors, who relied on adjustable-rate or subprime mortgages to buy properties, fall behind on climbing payments.

Many can't charge high enough rents to break even or sell their properties at a time when the market is flooded with listings.
The effect on Valley neighborhoods can be significant. Homeowners in areas with many rentals, vacant homes and new foreclosures are seeing their values decline or stagnate. Too many of these homes can deter buyers and lead to blight if the properties aren't maintained. advertisement




"Investors, particularly individuals with multiple properties, are driving up the foreclosure numbers," said Tom Ruff, a principal with the Information Market, a Phoenix-based data research firm that compiled the residential foreclosure records. "Foreclosures in metro Phoenix haven't likely peaked yet, either," Ruff added.


May be record year


Through May, 8,597 notices of trustee sales for homes, the precursor to a foreclosure, were filed in Maricopa County, putting metro Phoenix on pace to top 18,000 this year. That would be the highest level since the real estate crash of the late 1980s, though there are far more homes in the Valley today. Already this year, actual foreclosures are more than double what they were for all of last year.

A notice of trustee sale is started after a homeowner falls behind on a mortgage payment. Of those notices filed this year, 1,876 are for homes owned by almost 800 investors with multiple properties in foreclosure.

A Phoenix-based group called C-Street has 13 houses in central Phoenix historic neighborhoods that lenders have moved to foreclose on, according to public records.

Some individual investors, who had been flipping the homes among themselves, have together defaulted on almost a dozen homes in the East Valley. Most of those houses are in a new Gilbert neighborhood.

The foreclosures are yet another fallout from the investor-driven housing frenzy of 2004-05 that has left the market with inflated prices. Then, at least 25 percent of the record number of metro Phoenix home listings went to investors.

"Investors drove up the Valley's housing market. Now, they are driving it down with foreclosures," said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at Arizona State University's Morrison School. "You won't find a lot of people feeling sorry for them now."

Tamara Fisher certainly doesn't.

Fisher bought a new home in the northwest Valley two years ago. Now, at least two rentals, a house in foreclosure and another home that has never been occupied sit on her block of 15 houses.

"People were just out to make a quick buck, and now they are hurting me and many of my neighbors," she said while picking up a dirty plastic bag and a smashed beer can from the yard of the vacant house three doors down from her home.

"I want to sell and move to a neighborhood where people are proud of their homes. But all the investor-owned homes have flooded the market."


Speculator wave


The housing-speculation boom started in California in 2002-03. Investors pushed prices up and cashed out. Their next stop was Las Vegas, where they helped inflate home prices by 50 percent from 2003 to '04. An existing home there was selling for less than $190,000 four years ago. Now, even after home values have retreated, the median price for a used house is $310,000.

As houses got too pricey in Sin City, investors were drawn to Phoenix for its affordable housing and growth. In 2003, the median price for an existing single-family home stood at $155,000.

It didn't take long for prices to jump. Many early investors bought houses when subdivisions first opened and when prices were at their lowest. By the time the house was built about 10 months later, the price had jumped by 20 percent to 30 percent. Many of those investors sold for a profit before the paint was dry. By the end of 2005, the median price for a used Phoenix-area home had soared to $240,000.

"Many home builders in Phoenix did try to limit investors, but some just went with it to make the money that was out there," said Tim Sullivan, head of the national real estate consulting firm Sullivan Group, based San Diego.

"Those new neighborhoods, where investors went wild, will be the hardest hit," Sullivan added.


Investor binge


Las Vegas mortgage broker and investor Zareh Tahmassebian is among the out-of-state buyers who started the speculator-buying boom in metro Phoenix. In 2004, he was just 23 when he and partners bought 15 houses throughout the Valley.

Tahmassebian was so bullish on Arizona real estate that, in 2005, he moved from Vegas to live in one of his Valley homes in Chandler.

Now, like so many others, he is losing properties.

Earlier this year, he lost his Chandler house at a foreclosure auction. He owed $490,000 on the property he bought for $464,117 in September 2005, according to public records.

Some investors, like Tahmassebian, tapped equity in one house to buy another and now owe more than the home is worth. Others put so little down on homes they are just walking away from them.

When The Republic interviewed Tahmassebian for a story in February 2005, he talked about putting little money down and then tapping equity in one home to buy others. "Leverage is the name of the game," he said.

Shortly after that interview, national publications sought him out as an example of a young real estate speculator. Fortune Magazine quoted and photographed him for a May 2005 story.

Tahmassebian moved on to buy homes in Albuquerque. A foreclosure auction for one of his homes outside Albuquerque was scheduled for last week. He didn't return phone calls about his current investments.

Out-of-state buyers may have started a speculator boom, but local buyers quickly jumped in. At least half of the investors with multiple homes now in foreclosure have Phoenix tax-mailing addresses, according to property records.

"Most people think investors are all greedy groups from out of state, but there were also many local investors who saw the rise in home prices and tapped equity in their own house to buy other Valley homes," said Elliott Pollack, an Arizona economist and real estate investor. "A lot of people made a bet on housing and lost."


Hurting neighborhoods


For the neighbors of homes in foreclosure, it doesn't matter who bought the house or where they are from.

"The people expecting to invest and get a quick flip are likely behind many of the new investor foreclosures in Phoenix now," Sullivan said.

"But the people suffering the most now have primary residences in neighborhoods that are now surrounded by those foreclosure properties."

Fisher doesn't have to sell her home now, but she would like to. She is afraid the investor-owned properties in her neighborhood will pull down her values.

But some homeowners who do need to sell could be stuck. Mary Gomez, a West Valley real estate agent with Realty Executives, said some homeowners in neighborhoods with too many investment properties are having trouble selling.

"There are regular homeowners who need to sell but can't now because of all the investor properties for sale or in foreclosure in their area," Gomez said.

"Some of those homeowners might lose their homes."
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Cynhikr





Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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PostPosted: 7/30/2007, 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

U.S. mortgage foreclosures rise 30%, Arizona up 74% #8 in the Country.....

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0730biz-foreclosures30-ON.html
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IGO





Joined: 08 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: 7/30/2007, 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

There are 30,000 homes in the Las Vegas Valley for sale right now. One year ago there were 25,000 homes. The stock market is trembling because some think that cheap loans to a saturated market full of people who couldn't possibly pay off these home mortgages is coming to a serious head as power buy outs of bad debt may be coming to an end too.
I think you are correct Dadee. Very few investments have ever really doubled in 4 months. Even if people pay the price on paper, the evidance of consinquences are becoming clearer everyday.
I think th bottom line is If you can afford the house now and tomorrow then buy it. If you can't afford the house, who gives a crap what the interest rate or projected value is.
Now, IGO has been political. I think I'll go puke and avoid current events for another couple years.
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IGO





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PostPosted: 7/30/2007, 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

thesuperstitions wrote:
I know I'm an outsider, but markets around the country are the same, based upon the same market forces. In the late 90's here in the Baltimore/Washington area, you couldn't hardly sell a house without giving major incentives to the buyers. That came just a short time after a stellar growth in housing prices. Shortly after I bought at the bottom of the market in 97, the market turned up and now has risen to astronomic proportions. It WILL go down again. Nothing this capital-intensive is immune to cyclical forces. Those that speculate by buying for the short-term by taking out interest-only loans run a substantial risk that they will end up with negative equity and that short-term position will turn into a long-term position or will force you to take a big loss to get out. You have to calculate your own personal risk/reward threshold and live with the results.

Just my $0.02


That's is exactly my less than well versed point. I've looked intensly at the Vegas Market and have decided that to retire at and when I want to there are may benifits to live cheaply and buy in rural America the instant I'm ready. Besides, anything that I could afford today is probably going to be the Hood 20 years from now in this town.
Anyway, my thoughts may be a bit twisted. I lost heavily on all 4 of the last houses I sold.
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Cynhikr





Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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Location: Tempe, AZ.

PostPosted: 8/7/2007, 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

http://www.forbes.com/forbeslife/2007/07/16/suburbs-growth-housing-forbeslife-cx_mw_0716realestate_2.html?partner=msnre


The fastest-growing big suburb (with a population of 100,000 or more) is Gilbert, Az., which grew from 112,766 people to 191,517 in 2006.
The Phoenix area saw the greatest positive domestic migration of any American metro area last year, with 115,000 more people moving into town than leaving. Affordable housing and a growing economy are draws for the city.
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pfredricks





Joined: 10 Apr 2003
Posts: 347
Location: Peoria, AZ

PostPosted: 1/3/2008, 10:59 am    Post subject: update Reply to topic Reply with quote

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104114/How-They-Got-Housing-Wrong;_ylt=Ap3St_J5h.mqlkMTZzAIhegJo9IF


I think my comments from December 2005 were pretty spot on. Funny! I'm a real estate agent now too. I found something I love as much as hiking.


Opinions?? What is the buy in point now?
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Daryl





Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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Location: Everett, Washington

PostPosted: 1/3/2008, 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

Congrats on becoming a real estate agent! Tough time to be starting though. My wife is starting out all over again here. It was tough for her to walk away from a thriving business with a ringing phone.

Interesting to see my comments in hindsight now. I'll stand firm that real estate is still a good long term investment, but the slump is a lot more then I expected. I think the media telling people the sky is falling and home builders building far too many houses too quickly were the big reasons. Then the interest only ARMs componded it.

Buy in point? As an investor I'd stay away still unless you can rent it out for more then your monthly payment. The market will probably suck at least another 2 years in the phoenix area as inventory levels are far too high (thank you new home builders!). However, if I were buying a house that I planned on living in for 5 or more years and I could get the house I wanted for the price I can afford, I'd have no problem buying.

The market here in Seattle is actually just starting to drop in the last month or two. We have lost about $30K in equity on our house thus far, but I have no problem with that. I'm comfortable with my payments and I'm not selling anytime soon. Long term I'm confident it'll go up.

And for the record, we bought in early 2004 just as the big climb started. We sold last Feb well after the crash, at a lower then market value for a quick sale, and still walked away with a $90K profit. Granted, at the peak of the market we could have easily sold for a $150K profit, I'll take $90K profit on a 3 year investment any day of the week!
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thesuperstitions
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PostPosted: 1/3/2008, 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply to topic Reply with quote

It's time to buy right now, IMHO. Interest rates may dip a bit more, but I doubt it since inflation is heading North. Prices for homes are quite low compared to 2 years ago when everyone was seemingly in a frenzy, chasing the fast fortune. There will probably be a slow turn-around in 2008. The wild card will be whether we fall deeper into recession than we already are currently experiencing (my opinion, and that of just about anyone that watches the economy). Inflation, caused by the Fed trying to prop up their banker-buddies who were encouraged to give money away by the bucket-fulls to people that had no hope of paying it back, will continue to make for a sluggish economy. Of course, more smoke and mirrors will be put in place to make everything look rosy leading up to the coming presidential election. Then we'll get a new administration that also doesn't have a clue(doesn't matter who wins), who tries to manipulate the economy by thwarting the free market once again. More unsustainable social programs will be "given" to us by our benevolent dictators as they continue their long history of deciding what's in our best interest. Of course, we'll then get stuck with the bill as we always have in the past, and see tax increases the likes of which we haven't seen in nearly a decade.

And I consider myself an optimist! Shocked
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